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2008 is so last year

2008 is so last year

In general, we tend to overanalyze things.

Not that there's anything wrong with that. After all, there is a lot on the line: money, trophies, pride and most importantly, eight months worth of bragging rights.

One of the most overanalyzed facets of Fantasy Football, however, is strength of schedule (SOS).

For those unfamiliar with SOS and how it relates to the game, it's basically studying which offensive players have the most favorable matchups -- against the worst opposing defenses -- for the upcoming season.

The main flaw to using SOS as a pre-drafting tool, though, is that most of the information is based upon numbers from the 2008 season, which ended in December.

In the seven months since, the NFL has gone through salary cap cuts, a free agency period, the NFL Draft, arrests, suspensions and injuries. In today's league, it's possible for a team's defense to dramatically improve or take a huge step backward in the span of a few months.

To show how big of a difference a season can make, let's compare the defensive ratings (1-32) from the 2007 season to the 2008 season.

Last season, 19 teams, 59 percent of the NFL, moved at least five spots in their passing yards allowed per game rating from the year prior.

The biggest mover was the Chiefs, who rated 28th overall in 2008 after finishing the 2007 season with the NFL's fifth best pass defense.

The numbers were very similar when it came to run defense.

Thirteen teams, 41 percent of the league, moved at least five spots in their rushing yards allowed per game rating from 2007 to 2008.

The biggest mover was the Jets, who gained 22 spots on their rating -- moving up to No. 7 overall in 2008 from No. 29 overall in 2007.

Projecting SOS can be tricky for one main reason: defensive statistics are highly overrated. Unlike baseball, football stats don't always tell the complete story about a team and its on-field play.

A perfect example of this is last season's No. 10-rated passing defense, the Raiders.

The ineptness of the offense, which rated 29th in the NFL in yards per game and huge holes in the defense which allowed opponents to average 159.7 rushing yards per game, second worst in the league, played more of a role in Oakland's opponents averaging 201.3 passing yards per game than superior talent and good coaching schemes.

With a healthy lead and a successful ground attack, opposing teams had no reason to throw against the Raiders; one look at the opposing passing numbers doesn't tell that story, however.

When preparing for a draft, it's best to look ahead, not backward. Don't put anything into last season's numbers -- 2008 is so last year.